Peak Domaining-- The Doomsday Scenario

Yesterday Conor made what I consider to be the most significant observation in the evolution of domaining. In fact he NAILED it.

I have always been a proponent of peak oil and if what my mentors taught me continue to prove true, as every prediction they've made has thus far, domains are a mute point because civilization won't be here in 5-10 years. But in case they are wrong...

I have also in private forums for over 10 years been a crazy party pooper who has warned of peak domaining. Arguing with the likes of Frank Schilling and others that over time large PPC portolios based on making more then the reg fee on ad clicks will be an unsustainable model. Why?

1. Because you don't own the relationship with the advertiser on which the whole model depends. And anyone sharing revenue with you will look for a way to cut you out as they no longer need you once they've mined your customers and their shopping preferences. They will build systems that hijack user intention (as Google has incentivized with Mozilla) so type-ins go to a search bar versus an address bar. They will fundamentally change navigation with pull down suggestions, leverage of browser history, custom rss start pages, bar codes, texting, social media and offers delivered via email that direct link back. For years I've called this effort "taking the shopping out of buying." ITunes is a prime example as they create their own walled garden navigation. Think about it. When's the last time or ever you went to iTunes.com for your song?

2. Domain values would diminish because eventually it would be exposed that end-users are rarely buying and most of the game is speculators selling to other speculators all waiting for godot. Look at what's happened to the best portfolio collections (Marchex, iReit, Fabulous, IAC and LiveCurrent). Did development work there? No. They poured money into the domains and made less and had to start selling off at a fraction of what they paid. Because eventually you have to pay the renewals and more importantly yourself.

The party is over folks. I read about these mini-sites and the idea of increasing earnings from $1 to $27 a year? A year? A pan handler makes that ion 15 minutes. Isn't that a crazy business model? Think about it- instead of figuring out how to beat the game you missed by changing extensions or praying for time, you could be working on what's new or next. Or maybe even get a paying job, God forbid.

The domain doomsday scenario is here for the majority of domainers and even those at the top need to move to the next level.

For example, 15 years after the first land rush that so many are so envious of missing out on, you see pioneering generics like hotels,com, lawyers.com, dentalplans.com, match.com and more advertising regularly on television. That proves having a great name alone is no assurance of success. Because as the web gets more competitive and others vie to take your traffic away, you need a reason to make them come to you and return again. Sites no longer need just content, they also need marketing and persuasion.

Then there is the migration of the net from a text to video medium. Voice search and voice type-ins which Apple introduced yesterday in its next gen iPhone. All changing consumer and advertiser behavior.

Point is that no one can be complacent and no one is immune. The web is a constantly moving entity that never stops or pauses for stragglers to catch up.

And I've got worse news for you because if you think you were just 15 years too late, try 30 because the things you are seeing tomorrow like the voice search and iphones were being worked on during the years you've been trying to beat a dead horse with domains.