Frager Factor

Sunday, December 25, 2011

AAPL: Forecast Raised to $1000: 925 new iPhones are being activated very 60 seconds, 2 million people watching porn online now

“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.”

It sounds crazy that a stock could reach $1000. I think it will be more like $10K - when you consider the implications of Apple taking home the set top box prize. Look at what they gain by taking out 99% of the traditional functionality of domains, cable and search, not to mention changing the whole way human beings interact with TV and the web.

Gone will be typing in commands. Simple gestures or words to Siri will change your channels, find the website you want, a favorite video on YouTube and much much more.

iCloud will command it all. What we'll see is over a hundred million accounts paying a minimum of $99 a year. And it'll take only a couple of months of free service till people are totally dependent on it - and likewise on Apple. This is why, as hard a Google and Amazon are working to gain traction on the voice recognition component, Apple has The Platform and all of its customers. No way you can catch up.

Said one analyst, "Here’s a $5 billion market opportunity as demand increases for voice engine products such as Apple’s Siri voice engine, which is powered in part by Nuance technology. Every mobile and consumer electronics company on the planet is looking for ways to integrate natural, conversational voice interactions into their mobile products, applications, and services.

From a recent Steve Lohr NYT article titled, "At Apple, the platform is the engine of growth:"

"Size is the enemy of growth. It is one of the unwritten laws of business, a matter of simple percentages. After all, when a company has $1 billion in yearly sales, an extra $1 billion doubles its size. Add $1 billion in new business to a $10 billion-a-year company, and it amounts to just 10 percent growth. The size-growth tradeoff seems inevitable, an inescapable force like gravity. Try telling that to Apple, the corporate giant that two weeks ago reported a 71 percent jump in quarterly sales. Apple generates revenue at the rate of $100 billion a year.

"The software and services that work on Apple’s hit products are accelerating its extraordinary expansion. Apple provides the underlying technology and marketplace: iTunes software and the iTunes Store for managing, downloading and buying music and media; iPhone and iPad software for creating applications; and the App Store for sampling and buying them.

"The more people buy iPhones and iPads, the more software developers and media companies want to write applications for them, as various as games and digital magazines. And consumers are more likely to buy iPhones and iPads when more entertainment and information applications are available on them. The combination of hardware, software and services is what corporate executives, economists and analysts call a platform. Successful technology platforms sustain and reinforce growth. And this self-reinforcing cycle is known as a network effect. It helps the platform owner and raises a barrier to competitors."

If Apple had previously been using a stealth bomber to destroy other industries that were still fighting with swords, this time Jobs, even while resting in peace, is going Nuclear - by sending a marketing mushroom cloud that will turn search, domain, and operating systems players, assumed to be invincible, to ashes. His legacy is an explosive message to his critics, and to all who tried to thwart him: "I told you - it's all about smart ideas and the value they create."

Smart ideas win. And it doesn't hurt that they're seasoned with a little competitive vitriol.

I can assure you that when all these industries claim to have been caught blindsided by him, they had every opportunity not to. They should go back and read this blog, because all the trade secrets have been clearly laid out here. Take it from my Bell Labs colleague who just wrote a Forbes article about what both of us know that no one knows - because of the front row seat we had on the future, fifteen years before everyone else.

I will tell you more when I have the time to go in depth. Meanwhile, This article can help. So can this one.

Also recently released: What happens in a single 2011 minute (New York or otherwise)? It all has huge implications for Apple in 2012:

Apple sold 925 iPhone 4S handsets each minute during the device’s debut weekend, and it sells 81 iPads every 60 seconds on average. Research In Motion sells 103 BlackBerry phones, Amazon sells 18 Kindle Fire tablets and Microsoft sells 11 Xbox 360 consoles every minute. More than 700 computers are purchased around the world every 60 seconds, and 232 of them are infected by malware. That malware stat seems surprisingly low, however, when you consider that 2 million people watch online porn every minute.

The website design firm GO-Globe recently spread a variety of technology-related stats out across an infographic and the results help us put a lot of things into perspective. Beyond the staggering amount of Internet porn watched around the world, we can see just how entrenched various consumer electronics and digital goods and services have become in modern life.

Eleven million conversations take place using various instant messaging platforms every 60 seconds, 2,100 people check in using foursquare and 1,100 acres of virtual land are farmed in FarmVille. Thirty-eight tons of e-waste is generated around the world every minute, though we’re not sure if that stat includes all of the virtual land in FarmVille.

Every minute, $219,000 worth of payments are made using PayPal, $10,000 of which are sent from mobile devices. eBay claims a volume of 950 items each minute, and more than 180 of those purchases are made using mobile phones or tablets.

Surprisingly, perhaps, physical media maintains a huge presence in our lives despite the advent of the digital age. Four hundred and fifty Windows 7 discs are sold, 1,400 Redbox DVDs are rented and a staggering 2.6 million CDs containing 1,820 terabytes of data are created each minute. Four thousand USB devices are sold every 60 seconds as well, along with 2,500 ink cartridges.

The wired and wireless world is hyper-connected, and just as Jobs always wanted and predicted, the marketplace is ravenous for the smartest idea flawlessly delivered. iPads, Siri, effortless integration of visual and auditory product no matter what its source. So long, keyboards. Take note, Google and Microsoft and other lumbering giants - you're in the Triassic Age and the meteor is minutes from impact.

About The Author: Owen Frager is an Internet marketing expert ready to help take your company to the next level.

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