Frager Factor

Monday, February 20, 2012

Peak Everything: 2—Crazy Ones & A Sobering Look About The Truth of Domaining and The World

"In the past five years, warnings about peak oil have gained a lot of traction. U.S. oil production, after all, has fallen sharply since 1970. Global oil output has plateaued of late, even as China and India are demanding ever more crude. And that’s all caused prices to soar. Now an additional surge in oil prices sparked by saber-rattling from Iran is beginning to weigh on the global economic recovery, with potential ripple effects on consumers, corporate profits and interest rates. I'm still firmly convinced that there will be no attempt at regime change in Syria and no attack on Iran, unless of course the U.S. decides that global nuclear war is the most-profitable and only-remaining option. It's important for the U.S. to keep the talk going so as not to lose too much face at home in the wake of a string of major international embarrassments. The unchangeable reality of Peak Oil will be just as in play then as it is now. And for Europe the price of oil (now at $104 and rising) holds the entire world economy hostage."

Last week we blogged about Peak Oil, Peak Water, Peak Food and Peak Domaining. Many have predicted that a monumental change is coming, and for most Americans, it will be painful, especially for the unprepared. Essentially the world's most urgent problem we face- PEAK EVERYTHING- not just a matter of if, but when. Following PEAK everything (when you have as much as one can have) the opposite takes place— Collapse.

Several thinkers, notably James Howard Kunstler and, more recently John Michael Greer, have pointed out that the Kübler-Ross model is also quite terrifyingly accurate in reflecting the process by which society as a whole (or at least the informed and thinking parts of it) is reconciling itself to the inevitability of a discontinuous future, with our institutions and life support systems undermined by a combination of:
  • resource depletion,
  • catastrophic climate change and
  • political impotence.

"As the human population has climbed past seven billion, and the consumption per person of everything from burgers to blue jeans has risen inexorably, the finiteness of Earth’s freshwater is becoming ever more apparent.

"It takes water to make everything, and the explosion of demand for all manner of products is draining rivers, shrinking lakes, and depleting aquifers."

Limits to growth are not concerned about whether people see them or not."

If you remember the Apple commercials about the crazy ones, the message was don't be too quick to dismiss theories or ideas you can't envision or don't believe in right as wrong or crazy, for those turn out to be very same crazy ideas that have moved the world forward, time and time again- like the earth being flat.

That in mind, I am open to all points of view. For example, while I am not convinced 911 was an inside job myself, I am willing to listen to the evidence.

And the evidence I give you here today about the state of the world, its oil and water, weather, and economies is very compelling. It should warrant consideration and one can never go wrong having a contingency plan just in case. If the worst is that these future forecasters are wrong, then we all can rejoice. To sum it up- the Boy Scouts had a great idea: BE PREPARED

But giving me more assurance that these theories are are the right track comes BLOOMBERG article that was almost as if ripped from the headlines here at The Frager Factor last week. There is a message in all this so pay attention. I know that many of the smartest domainers out there are paying attention too. We have these discussions. They often reassure me that I am not alone or crazy and it fits.

Remember, just being a domainer at one time not to long ago, YOU were the guy they dismissed as a crazy one. Take Rick Schwartz. Rick’s trajectory through 1-800 vanity numbers tells us how he saw the patterns that led him to have such confidence in buying $100 names when everyone thought he was nuts. He wasn’t nuts — he’d seen it all before, just in a different channel. That's what makes our "peak" expert sherpa's well-qualified to be right here.

To sum it up- the Boy Scouts had a great idea: BE PREPARED

So listen and learn. And if you only take in the four short films linked below to inform your worldview, today may be the day when you choice to pay deeper attention, pays off.

Remember in an election year, the incumbents have every reason to hide realities and sugar coat the truth. But you can't hide the truth at the pump or in the employment line, so read on if you wish. I'm not going as far as Rick Schwartz or Glenn Beck telling you to get guns and months of emergency food, but I do advise making smarter, more informed decisions. But the financial collapse is already in progress no matter the MSM happy news spin.
  • Real estate prices continue to decline despite a 30-year mortgage rate at or below 4%.
  • Millions more homes will be foreclosed on in the next few years.
  • The true unemployment and underemployment rate is 22.5%, and there is little hope of turning things around quickly with American manufacturing gutted and shipped to China.
  • A record 46 million people are on food stamps.
  • At least 90% of all mortgages are supplied by the government.
  • The Fed is holding a key interest rate at 0% through 2014 and is starting a new round of money printing (QE)…
  • Vehicle sales have been propped up with a new round of subprime financing.
  • America’s debt to GDP is 100% or more, and another debt ceiling increase will probably be necessary before the November election.
  • The banks are allowed to use government accounting fraud to make them look solvent.
  • Most U.S. states are not only flat broke but underwater with massive debt loads.
  • Bankers who created this mess with trillions of dollars of fraud are not prosecuted for fear of speeding up the coming collapse.
  • Fuel and food prices are rising, and inflation is running at 11% (if it were calculated the way the government did it in 1980).
  • As the dollar is debased, inflation will spike.
Says Michael C. Ruppert (the most brilliant mind on the subject that I have been following for 20 years):
"Global manufacturing has plummeted, oil prices are soaring, few goods are being shipped globally, power shortages are gripping major cities around the world, and economic activity is grinding to a halt as increasingly violent protests cripple nations all over the world.

And as the dollar weakens around the globe as a result of recent U.S. defeats in its contest with Iran, the Iranians are planning a financial move five days before Greece defaults on March 25 that will ensure the biggest global economic shake up of the industrial era.

Five weeks from now we will be living in a brutal and unfamiliar new world. There is no way to build a firewall around Greece. The dominoes will fall globally and, as Orlov said recently on Max Keiser, "The stages of economic, political and social collapse -- instead of happening sequentially -- will happen simultaneously. "

The 5 Stages of Collapse say the experts...
Stage 1: Financial collapse.
Faith in “business as usual” is lost. The future is no longer assumed [to] resemble the past in any way that allows risk to be assessed and financial assets to be guaranteed. Financial institutions become insolvent; savings are wiped out, and access to capital is lost.

Stage 2: Commercial collapse.
Faith that “the market shall provide” is lost. Money is devalued and/or becomes scarce, commodities are hoarded, import and retail chains break down, and widespread shortages of survival necessities become the norm.

Stage 3: Political collapse.
Faith that “the government will take care of you” is lost. As official attempts to mitigate widespread loss of access to commercial sources of survival necessities fail to make a difference, the political establishment loses legitimacy and relevance.
Stage 4: Social collapse. Faith that “your people will take care of you” is lost, as local social institutions, be they charities or other groups that rush in to fill the power vacuum run out of resources or fail through internal conflict.

Stage 5: Cultural collapse.
Faith in the goodness of humanity is lost. People lose their capacity for “kindness, generosity, consideration, affection, honesty, hospitality, compassion, charity” (Turnbull, The Mountain People). Families disband and compete as individuals for scarce resources. The new motto becomes “May you die today so that I die tomorrow” (Solzhenitsyn, The Gulag Archipelago). There may even be some cannibalism. (that lab produced cheeseburger will be looking much better then!)

About The Author: Owen Frager is an Internet marketing expert ready to help take your company to the next level.

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