I was inspired by Rick Schwartz’s time capsule post that showcases the power, yet loneliness, of long distance thinking.
Being the "explorer" that I am, I went back to my PAPER archives to find my own time capsule; the 1999 blog post from which I discovered Google (before they were called blogs, mind you).
It fundamentally changed how I perceived the Internet and PPC. In hindsight, TIME has proved I was led in the right direction.
It was called "Give Me Your Billions: Internet Stock Valuation and Future User Characteristics" from another role model visionary like Rick named Jakob Nielsen that I've always since evangelized as the best web advice on the web.
"Unique visitors" and "reach" are meaningless measures: only loyal users count."
"The fact that a Stanford student can build a better service than the Web's leading designed and visited site should be a warning to people who think the Web is all locked up."
"The Web is still young with only150 million users, compared to about a billion users (in 5-10 years, depending on what predictions you believe) it follows that 850 million of the users are not online yet."
“There is no reason to believe that these many new users will necessarily use the same sites as current users. In fact, since they will be late adopters they may well have different tastes than the current early adopters. Thus, current market share predicts very little about a site's future user base."This was in 1999 and he was referring to Google destroying Yahoo. Think about it right now. May be worthy of a read or reread.
And all of this years before anyone knew what an iPhone was or could do. iTunes too.