Frager Factor

Tuesday, March 24, 2020

COVID-19: The Economic Cataclysm Ahead (Can You Handle The Truth?)

Why can't we get supplies? 
Why can't we assume this is solved and go back to work? 




Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog explains why:

The economic storm hasn't passed; the false calm is only the eye of the financial hurricane.

To understand the economic cataclysm ahead, do the math. Those expecting the Covid-19 pandemic to leave the U.S. economy untouched are implicitly making these preposterously unlikely claims:

1. China will resume full pre-pandemic production and shipping within the next two weeks.

2. Chinese consumers will resume borrowing and spending at pre-pandemic rates in a few weeks.

3. Every factory and every worker in China will resume full pre-pandemic production without any permanent closures or disruptions.

4. Corporate America's just-in-time inventories will magically expand to cover weeks or months of supply chain disruption.

5. Not a single one of the thousands of people who flew direct from Wuhan to the U.S. in January is an asymptomatic carrier of the coronavirus who escaped detection at the airport.

6. Not a single one of the thousands of people who flew from China to the U.S. in February is an asymptomatic carrier of the coronavirus.

7. Not a single one of the thousands of people who are in self-quarantine broke the quarantine to go to Safeway for milk and eggs.

8. Not a single person who came down with Covid-19 after arriving in the U.S feared being deported so they did not go to a hospital and are therefore unknown to authorities.

9. Even though U.S. officials have only tested a relative handful of the thousands of people who came from Covid-19 hotspots in China, they caught every single asymptomatic carrier.

10. Not a single asymptomatic carrier caught a flight from China to Southeast Asia and then promptly boarded a flight for the U.S.

I could go on but you get the picture: an extremely contagious pathogen that is spread by carriers who don't know they have the virus to people who then infect others in a rapidly expanding circle has been completely controlled by U.S. authorities who haven't tested or even tracked tens of thousands of potential carriers in the U.S.

These same authorities are quick to claim the risk of Covid-19 spreading in the U.S. is low even as the 14 infected people they put on a plane ended up infecting 25 passengers on the flight. These same authorities tried to transfer quarantined people to a rundown facility in Costa Mesa CA that was not suitable for quarantine, forcing the city to file a lawsuit to stop the transfer.

Do these actions instill unwavering confidence in the official U.S. response? You must be joking.

Do the math, people. The coronavirus is already in the U.S. but authorities have no way to track it due to its spread by asymptomatic carriers. People who don't even know they have the virus are flying to intermediate airports outside China and then catching flights to the U.S.

None of the known characteristics of the virus support the confidence being projected by authorities. The tests are not reliable, few are being tested, carriers can't be detected because they don't have any symptoms, the virus is highly contagious, thousands of potential carriers continue to arrive in the U.S., etc. etc. etc.

The network of global travel remains intact. Removing a few nodes (Wuhan, etc.) does not reduce the entire network's connectedness that enables the rapid and invisible spread of the virus.

Second, what authorities call over-reaction is simply prudent risk management. As I noted yesterday in How Many Cases of Covid-19 Will It Take For You to Decide Not to Frequent Public Places?, when an abstract pandemic becomes real, shelves are emptied and streets are deserted.

It doesn't take thousands of cases to trigger a dramatic reduction in the willingness to mix with crowds of strangers. A relative handful of cases is enough to be consequential.

Many of the new jobs created in the U.S. economy over the past decade are in the food and beverage services sector, the sector that is immediately impacted when people decide to lower their risk by staying home rather than going out to crowded restaurants, theaters, bars, etc.

Many of these establishments are hanging on by a thread due to soaring rents, taxes, fees, healthcare and wages. Many of the employees are also hanging on by a thread, only making rent if they collect big tips.

Central banks can borrow money into existence but they can't replace lost income. A significant percentage of America's food and beverage establishments are financially precarious, and their exhausted owners are burned out by the stresses of keeping their business afloat as costs continue rising. The initial financial hit as people reduce their public exposure will be more than enough to cause many to close their doors forever.

As small businesses fold, local tax revenues crater, triggering fiscal crises in local government budgets dependent on ever-higher tax and fee revenues.

A significant percentage of America's borrowers are financially precarious, one paycheck or unexpected expense away from defaulting on student loans, subprime auto loans, credit card payments, etc.

A significant percentage of America's corporations are financially precarious, dependent on expanding debt and rising cash flow to service their expanding debt load. Any hit to their revenues will trigger defaults that will then unleash second-order effects in the global financial system.

The global economy is so dependent on speculative euphoria, leverage and debt that any external shock will tip it over the cliff. The U.S. economy is far more precarious than advertised as well.

The economic storm hasn't passed; the false calm is only the eye of the financial hurricane.




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Tuesday, March 17, 2020

Truth About The World: 10K Dow; 50% Unemployment; Home Values -90%

Today: Sharing what I've known for a while but feared spreading panic. But now you deserve to know the truth.










The economy a month ago was not financially strong,
 nor the best economy ever.



By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: December 16, 2019 ~








Who could have seen this coming? Chris did. Years ago.
It is impossible for any doomed population to grasp how fragile the decayed financial, social and political system is on the eve of implosion.






January 31, 2020
"Dow 30,000 is "unsinkable," just like the Titanic."




The decline phase of the S-Curve is just beginning.

















Everyone with a pension fund or 401K invested in stocks better hope the Fed becomes the buyer of last resort, and soon.




“At the time of writing, 10 patients are accompanied in breathing by a machine that uses a 3D printed valve.”




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Monday, February 24, 2020

Direct Response TV At Its Best: Easy As Pie (.com)

You've often heard me speak of the underutilization of one of the best marketing strategies of the digital age: Direct response TV using call-to-action domain names as brand.

In many respects the domain name IS an ad.

3-5 word domains used to have low values. But as "Easy As Pie" demonstrates, the value of memorability can't be measured by Estibot.


The Top 125 DTC Brands Spent $3.8 Billion on TV Ads Last Year
That's a 60% increase from 2018, according to new VAB study

When it comes to ad spend, direct-to-consumers brands, known for changing the playbook on how a company operates and connects with consumers, are moving toward a familiar path carved out by their conventional competitors.

Many brands have been built solely on direct response TV: Care.com, APlaceForMom.com, Chewy.com, HomeAdvisor.com, HomeLight, Peloton, Chewy, Smile Direct Club and mattress company Purple.

Booking.com is biggest buyer, according to iSpot.TV

The rest of the top 5 were HomeAdvisor at $113.4 million, Chewy at $113.1 million, Wayfair at $100.5 million and Carvana at $85.7 million.

iSpot said that among the DTC brands, Carvana’s Enjoy the New Way to Buy a Car generated the highest attention score, according to iSpot.TV.

Other DTC brands whose spots drew the most attention from viewers were Noom, NerdWallet, Chewy and Touch of Modern.



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Tuesday, February 18, 2020

ElectionGuard: Microsoft Secures Elections, But Not The Brand's Exact Match Domain

From Nurse Bots to Artificial Kidneys to Mobile MRI to Glass Flip Phones to Dangerous Domain Names to Service Horse... this is where you read about emerging technologies and future trends all of which need branding and names (and those coming later will have even a more urgent and expensive search)










ElectionGuard isn't designed to make voting machines safe from hackers. It's meant to make hacking them pointless.




As an early domain name investor, Mike O’Connor had by 1994 snatched up several choice online destinations, including bar.com, cafes.com, grill.com, place.com, pub.com and television.com. Some he sold over the years, but for the past 26 years O’Connor refused to auction perhaps the most sensitive domain in his stable — corp.com. It is sensitive because years of testing shows whoever wields it would have access to an unending stream of passwords, email and other proprietary data belonging to hundreds of thousands of systems at major companies around the globe.






As in, it's easy to damage despite spiel


















Medical City Dallas sees its endearing, automated medical assistant as another tool to combat the Texas nursing shortage.



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Tuesday, February 11, 2020

Goodbye Colonoscopy (.com) & American EV Innovation You Haven't Heard About

Today: The Climate Pledge, Super Yachts, Bitcoin, Amazon prime, Electronic Vehicles, Instagram, Likes, Electric Delivery Vehicles, Electric Vehicle Maker Rivian
































Adam Mosseri, chieftain of Instagram, wants to keep the platform a safe, special space. That means learning from the mistakes of its parent company: Facebook.




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Saturday, February 08, 2020

'How to Write the Web Site That Sells'



Someone sent me this. Good advice. 



'How to Write the Web Site That Sells'

Your Web site has a single motive:

To 'ignite' your visitors to take action.

This prime motive is behind every element of your Web site design and content. Start with the idea that you have one chance to reach your customers. They will never return to your site unless you make it worth their while, and they will not buy unless you encourage/force/ask them to.

This will impact the 5 prime elements working together in any excellent Web site ã the mechanics, content, interactivity, design and optimization. Right now, let's focus on the mechanics of writing content that sells.

Here is a simple template for a Web site that sells which you can readily adapt to meet your needs. Use it as a jumping-off point for your income-generating Web presence.

You'll find it goes against the current vogue online for the single-page, long-scrolling salesletter on the home page leading to an order form. But think of it this way:

Your home page can be like an interesting magazine index, or magazine cover listing provocative headlines. You should offer enough compelling information here so that any visitor is forced to go deeper into your site. They've got to click through. They just can't hold themselves back.

A good home page should be a clear call to action. But it also can't go on for too long or you will put your visitors off. Go ahead and use different benefit subheadlines and link phrases that pull readers to your sales page. Start with...


I. The Benefit-Rich Headline

A strong, enticing headline is the single most important element of your Web marketing copy. It is the opening statement and first impression you make.

Because Web pages load from the top down, place your headline right at the top of the page so it can be read while the rest of the elements fall into place. If you have a lot of graphics that need to load, your headline should give your site visitors enough reason to wait.

Imagine your Web page is a blind date for every first-time visitor who comes to your site. Your headline MUST make the right first impression immediately, or new visitors will want nothing more than to click away as fast as they can.

Obviously your headline cannot be all things to all people (and you wouldn't want to date everyone either...), but it can and should speak directly to those people you most want to reach.

Your headline has these tasks: to ARREST the attention of your target market. To GRAB your reader by the collar so they have no choice but to read on.

If your target market is 'doctors', then use the word 'doctors' in your headline. There's a funny saying:

"Enough about you... let's hear about me."

That's your site visitor talking. These words tell you everything about how to craft your headline, and the more specific and targeted you make it, the better.

Your headline should serve as an ad for the rest of your Web copy, clearly delivering a 'distilled' version of what they are about to discover in the body of your text.

Did you know?

o  Only one out of five people get beyond the headline to read the rest of the Web page

o  You have 30 seconds or less to make a positive impression, or your site visitor will click away

o  The right wording in your headline can increase your sales conversion rate by 1700%

It's true! Studies show the right headline can increase response to an offer exponentially, which is a good reason to test different headlines until you find your 'killer'. Once you've got it, it's the key to your success. So spend the time to make your headline work. Here's how to find the right headline:

Tell your target audience the single most important benefit you are offering them.

That's it.

State a powerful benefit in your headline that clearly enhances THEIR LIVES, using power words such as: 'Discover'; 'Announcing'; 'Breakthrough'; 'Facts'; 'New'; 'Now'; 'Yes'; 'Sale' - all words that are active, grab the attention of prospects, and promise them something (the two words of most value to your customers are 'You', and 'Free').

Finally, keep in mind that your customer is never buying a product or service. They are actually buying a key benefit that will make their life better.


II. The Value Proposition for Your Customer

Immediately after your headline comes the opening salvo of text on the page - the value proposition. This 1-3 paragraph section is all about your target customer. Either it states their current situation, and 'ain't it awful', or it reveals a dream they have about what their life could become: 'If only...'

To write it, go back to the roots of the product or service you are offering. Why does it exist in today's world, and what good does it do your target customer? Ask yourself why you sell it, and perhaps why you got involved with it in the first place. Be idealistic. The proposition section of your home page sets up a kind of vacuum, which you are about to fill with...


III. The Benefits You Deliver

A benefit is anything that will make your customer's life better by using your product or service. This is the payoff, and the crucial section of your home page where you must deliver the goods. Take a good look at what you are promoting, and then...

Write down each and every benefit you can, with no thought about which is the most important. You'll order them later. Write down everything that can possibly do your customer some good. Everything.

After finishing this 'brain dump', go back and prioritize. Don't prioritize as you go, because that will inhibit you. List first, order second. (NOTE: consider using a powerful benefit as a text link leading to your sales letter.)

On your home page you will clearly state the top benefits you deliver, but you'll expand upon them in...


IV.  Your Benefit-Rich Sales Letter

The benefit-rich sales letter always closes the sale. It builds upon what you have promised to deliver on your home page, answers any objections or questions your readers may have and fully justifies the price you ask. On this page longer copy will outsell shorter copy, so make a complete sales pitch from start to finish.

Here are 10 key formatting tips that will keep your prospects reading so you can close the sale.

1.  Break the copy of your sales letter up into short copy paragraphs. A single-sentence paragraph can make a striking point.

2.  Use headlines and sub-headlines.

3.  Use bullets, numbers, and dashes (ã) to further break up copy, allowing plenty of white space to make reading your offer even easier on the eye.

4.  Use arrows (ã>), boxes, color or shading, graphics, indentations, bold lettering, CAPITAL LETTERS, italics, and punctuation!! Note: use a light touch here, rather than the 'HIT them over and over 'til they beg for mercy!' approach.

5.  Give customers premiums. Over-deliver on the offer that first interested your prospective customer any way you can. The goal is to give your customers far more perceived value than they actually pay for. Premiums can add tremendous value to your offer without substantially increasing your cost of delivery.

6.  Emphasize the word FREE wherever it applies.

7.  Use fast-loading graphics that actively support your message. Avoid generic clip-art 'success' graphics if you can.

8.  Provide testimonials. If you don't have them, give your product or service away and gather some immediately. It's a suspicious world, and you need other people to validate your offer.

9.  Urge 'Immediate Action'. State a time limit to your offer (note: many marketers offer their premiums only if prospective customers buy within a window of 3-14 days).

10. Make an iron-clad guarantee. Do what you can to over-deliver in this area, too - a guarantee that is better than your competitors offer is a powerful selling point.

Finally, here is the progression people actually follow when they read:

a. The Headline
b. Any Captions for Photos or Drawings
c. Any Large Text Subheads
d. The PS
e. Ordering Information and Price
f. (Finally!), the Actual Text itself

Which means, spend the time to buff and polish each of these elements for your target audience. The better you know these people and 'how badly they hurt', the more sales you will make.




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Tuesday, February 04, 2020

What's Worse Than A Domain Name That Doesn't Pass The Radio Test?

Not only difficult to spell and pronounce (does it end in "y" or "i" two "b's" or one?), doesn't express what you make or sell and has no equity in the hearts and minds of people. But to do a direct response TV spot with a non-native voice over?




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About The Author: Owen Frager is an Internet marketing expert ready to help take your company to the next level.

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