Frager Factor

Wednesday, December 20, 2017

Are You A Frager Factor Millionaire?

I was one of the first to predict this stock would hit $300 then $600, then $1000 offering all the reasons and justifications why. The stock exceeded $600 then split 7 to 1. Adjusted for the split it stands at $1221 today.

Frager Factor reader John, a software marketing executive, invested $7500 in 100 shares, and still holds them worth $122,192.

Frager Factor reader Alan, an advertising agency founder who stumbled onto this post while pondering what to do with the 10s of millions he just banked following the acquisition of the Madison Ave shop he founded by a global giant, invested $75,000 in 100 shares in his name, and an additional $75,000 in trust for each of his four grandchildren. Today he holds $1,221,920 in each of the five accounts. He tells me that his grandchildren have me to thank for securing their college education.

Then there was Kevin, the guy that inspired this post. Kevin is the perfect mark for a ponzi scheme, among the suckers born every minute that are easy prey. They ponzi scheme that swallowed him in was dot Mobi. Based on a press release written by the promoters, with no background about technology nor research to understand the market or question the science, Kevin and hundreds of others were rightfully convinced that mobile was the future, but wrongfully betting on dot Mobi as the key to delivering it. They saw dot Mobi as everything that the iPhone is today. I spent a lot of time arguing with guys like Kevin in forums trying to save them from the train wreck I saw coming, and the loss of money they couldn't afford to lose, often leveraged on a credit card. Kevin was about t spend $7500 on dot Mobi and I was trying to show him that there are other, smarter ways of investing. I tried to tell Kevin that he could get rich from the emerging mobile future, but the bet should be on Apple. Poor Kevin, still paying off that credit card where instead of the $122K return from Apple, his $7500 has ballooned to $25,000 with 22% interest accumulating every month. And poor me thinking I could save the world.

Now the back story:

As we wrap our 11th year publishing the Frager Factor, I thought I'd circle back to where we started in 2006, Apple stock was $75 and Microsoft was stuck at $29. 

My bullishness on Apple wasn't based on my financial acumen, but merely on observation of consumer behavior starting with my own.

I had advance knowledge of what was coming and I knew it would change the world. It would bring  more users online who had been computer dyslexic. I devoted a lot of pages to explain what's coming and the sea change of mobile, apps, voice that would change navigation and in some cases, take the shopping out of buying because the online companies stay connected to their customers via emails and alerts that deliver them right to the offer page.

But conventional wisdom might lead one to assume that whatever revolutions were to come, Microsoft would do it bigger and better. But we were experiencing an era of creative destruction. Where all bets were off. 

Where Sears didn't evolve into Amazon. Where Kodak and Polaroid watched digital photography eat their lunch. Where Blockbuster closed rather than leveraging their database advantage to beat Netflix to market. And where Microsoft would sit on the sidelines missing the mobile, social, voice and app revolutions.

Some people have wondered what benefit they could ever get from reading this blog. If just two readers made $1,500,00 off the very first of 13,000 posts, imagine what other gold lies within. Among that was evangelism about the Cloud revolution. In  the coming days, we will revisit those posts and run the numbers on what those investments have become.

The math:

October 2006- 100 Shares Bought at $75

June 2014- Stock splits 7 to 1 22.69
Repriced 700 shares  @92.69

Today 700 Shares @174.56

October 2006 1000 Shares Bought at $75

June 2014 Stock splits 7 to 1 22.69
Repriced 7000 shares  @92.69

Today 7000 Shares @174.56

In sum...

5-year return-- 115%

10-year return-- 1,100%

Since Apple's IPO in 1980-- 21,000%

And you haven't seem anything yet.

About The Author: Owen Frager is an Internet marketing expert ready to help take your company to the next level.

Contact Owen: Twitter | Google+ | Facebook | LinkedIn | Email